Forbes Preakness Picks

Contender analysis: In spite of Authentic winning the Kentucky Derby rather easily and gamely by a length a quarter, I think an upset is brewing and the horse capable of that upset is Pneumatic. In recent history, the Derby winner has won four of the last 10 editions of the Preakness when they have run in the race. However, that means there have been six occasions the Derby winner has been beaten. Baltimore Sun's coverage of the Kentucky Derby, Preakness Stakes and the Belmont Stakes races, including get up-to-date news, stakes, schedules, and race day updates.

The COVID-19 pandemic has turned the sports world upside down, with the racing calendar made virtually unrecognizable over the past six months. The final leg of the Triple Crown series - not the middle leg, as is customary - is an incredibly interesting Preakness Stakes.

Tiz the Law and Authentic split the first two legs and Tiz the Law is sitting this one out. Still, the Preakness is shaping up as a great betting race, with a field of 11 stocked with a lot of talent expected to go postward.

Preakness 2020:Post positions, morning line odds, info

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Authentic will be going for his third straight Grade 1 win - after capturing the Haskell and Kentucky Derby - but there are new shooters here, including talented filly Swiss Skydiver, who will be taking on the boys for the second time. NBC is scheduled to begin programming for Saturday's race 4:30 p.m. ET. Post time for the Preakness is expected to be at approximately 5:45 p.m.

Here are Preakness predictions from experts and USA TODAY NETWORK Atlantic Group staff.

Preakness field

1. Excession (Russell) 30-1

2. Mr. Big News (G. Saez) 12-1

3. Art Collector (Hernandez Jr.) 5/2

4. Swiss Skydiver (Albarado) 6-1

5. Thousand Words (Geroux) 6-1

6. Jesus' Team (Toledo) 30-1

7. Ny Traffic (Karamanos) 15-1

8. Max Player (Lopez) 15-1

9. Authentic (Velazquez) 9/5

10. Pneumatic (Bravo) 20-1

11. Liveyourbeastlife (McCarthy) 30-1

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Bob Jordan, USA TODAY NETWORK Atlantic Group Sports Deputy Director

1. Swiss Skydiver is bidding to become to the sixth filly to win the Preakness. This is not her first rodeo against males - she was second to Art Collector in the Blue Grass Stakes on July 11. Since then she's won the Grade 1 Alabama at Saratoga on Aug. 15 and finished second in the Kentucky Oaks on Sept. 4. There's a new jockey aboard - Robby Albarado, who at age 47 gets a chance to jumpstart his career after spending his summer at Indiana Grand. Albarado won the 2007 Preakness with Curlin.

2. Art Collector beat Swiss Skydiver in the Blue Grass, but here we'll reverse that exacta with the expectation that Art Collector will be good but not great after withdrawing from the Kentucky Derby with a foot issue.

3. Authentic gave trainer Bob Baffert his record-tying sixth Kentucky Derby win but the Preakness race flow looks unfavorable now, with Authentic likely to face plenty of company up front.

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Steve Edelson, USA TODAY NETWORK New Jersey sports columnist/racing writer

1. Authentic: The victory by the Bob Baffert-trained colt in the Kentucky Derby was as impress, leading the field through honest fractions before dusting Tiz the Law down the stretch. And after a month to recover from a performance that received a 105 Beyer Speed Figure, look for Authentic to wire the field in a third straight Grade 1. There’s plenty of other speed in the race, but if Authentic could handle Tiz the Law, he can handle this crew.

2. Thousand Words: If you’re looking for an improving horse with the talent to challenge against this type of field, it’s this West Coast invader. The victory in the Shared Belief at Del Mar last time out was impressive, earning a 104 Beyer. While he hasn’t raced in two months, Baffert doesn’t send horses just to run around the track. They generally show up ready to turn in big performances, and he’s had two solid workouts at Churchill Downs after shipping east earlier in the month.

3. Art Collector: Authentic and Art Collector are the only horses in the field with multiple Beyers of 101 or higher this year. And Art Collector has proven an ability to run just off the pace, which is likely where he’ll sit in this race.

Steven Falk, Asbury Park Press sportswriter

1. Authentic: It is very simple. Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert, who is probably the best trainer of dirt horses in the world, has won the Kentucky Derby six times and the five previous winners came back to win the Preakness. See no reason that will change here. He is the main speed and his Kentucky Derby win was legitimate with solid fractions and a 105 Beyer Speed Figure.

2. Pneumatic: Time to spice up the exotics. This son of Uncle Mo, trained by Hall of Famer Steve Asmussen and to be ridden by Jersey Joe Bravo, has shown ability in each of his five previous starts. His 98 Beyer Speed Figure in winning the Pegasus at Monmouth Park was his best yet. There could be another forward move in him, and if there is, he can absolutely hit the board. His fourth-place finish in the Belmont shows he can compete at this level.

3. Thousand Words: The other Baffert-trained one in here. Many times, the other Baffert is always worth considering. This horse was probably going to be the fourth choice in the Derby before he flipped in the paddock and had to be scratched. The fact Baffert is coming right back with him is an encouraging sign. His 104 Beyer Speed Figure in beating the now-retired Honor A.P. in the Shared Belief at Del Mar Aug. 1 showed what he is capable of.

Greg Giombarrese, Lakewood BlueClaws Director of Communications

1. Pneumatic: He took a big step forward last time in the Pegasus at Monmouth with an emphatic win, earning a 98 Beyer Speed Figure. After running a bit flat in the Belmont, he blossomed on eight weeks rest last time and has been pointing here for six weeks. He did not draw that well but hopefully can tuck into the 2 or 3 path in a race that could feature an honest pace. He seems to have some upside and will be a good price.

2. Art Collector: He would have been the second choice in the Derby but had a small issue that forced him to skip the race. His tactical speed and inside draw should put him in position to work out a good trip and he has improved significantly over the course of the summer.

Forbes Preakness Picks Against

3. Authentic:He ran very well to win the Derby four weeks ago, setting a fast pace and holding off a top rival in Tiz the Law. There is potentially some other speed in here and he'll have to work a bit harder early on. Depending on how a few others are ridden, Authentic's outside post means he likely has to be hard-used early or get carried wide.

4. Max Player: He is a deep, closing grinder who is unlikely to win but can get a piece underneath if things heat up on top. He had to navigate between horses in the Derby and didn't find his best stride until it was too late.

Ken Jordan (five times among top finishers at NTRA/National Horseplayers Championship, four Top 10s at Horseplayers World Series)

1. Pneumatic: Late-bloomer got past Belmont dud with big performance in Monmouth's Pegasus. Should be able to get first run when the anticipated pace duel takes a toll on pacesetters.

2. Authentic: Lived up to his name with Derby win. He will have to work harder earlier this time.

3. Art Collector: The one to test Authentic early, can't imagine connections thinking they can rate and outfinish Authentic.

4. Thousand Words: The 'other' Baffert adds blinkers and may be overlooked in the wagering.

Sean Nolan (15-time National Horseplayers Championship qualifier, 2001 runnerup, four Top 20 finishes)

1. Art Collector: Despite missing the Derby, looks to have not missed a beat in training over the past few weeks. Will be in the mix from the beginning and should appreciate a generally speed-favoring surface at Pimlico. Gets the call over his Blue Grass rival.

2. Swiss Skydiver: McPeek sending her to Baltimore is a vote of confidence and we know the distance will not be a problem. Will need a patient ride by Albarado.

3. Max Player: Will benefit if a hot pace develops and may just get that set up with Authentic wanting to keep Art Collector company on the front end. The switch to Paco Lopez seems to indicate they want 'Player engaged early on. He has a much better post than he had in the Derby and will be a factor late. Must respect the Baffert runners, but thinking Authentic is the next edition of Always Dreaming and will not deliver. Moreover, adding blinkers to Thousand Words tells me he has not been giving all in recent training. Enjoy what looks to be a great day of racing at Old Hilltop.

This article originally appeared on Asbury Park Press: Preakness 2020: Betting guide, predictions

• October 1, 2020
• by Anthony Stabile
• VegasInsider.com

Preakness Stakes
Betting Resources

• Date: Saturday, Oct. 3, 2020
• Race: 11
• Distance: 1 3/16 Miles
• Surface: Dirt
• Start Time: 5:36 p.m. ET
• Where to Watch: NBC Sports
• Location:Pimlico Race Course - Baltimore, Maryland
• Odds:Morning-Line
• Picks:VegasInsider.com Experts
• History:Past Winners

Handicapping the Field
Preakness Stakes

Morning Line Odds

(Preakness Stakes Career Record)

145th Preakness Stakes Predictions

Forbes Preakness Picks Odds

1) Excession

• Morning Line Odds: 30/1
• Trainer: Steve Asmussen (2-10)
• Jockey: Sheldon Russell (0-1)

Finished less than a length behind Nadal in the Rebel at over 80-1 when last seen over six months ago at Oaklawn Park. He’s won just once in nine tries and all his best races have come over wet tracks. Pass.

2) Mr. Big News

• Morning Line Odds: 12/1
• Trainer: Bret Calhoun (Debut)
• Jockey: Gabe Saez (0-1)

Made a big move on the far turn in the Kentucky Derby then raced evenly through the stretch to finish third at a big price. You’d have to think he’d have to follow up a career-best effort with another one to get a piece again in here. I’m not saying he can’t but I don’t want him at 12-1 Saturday after he was 46-1 in Kentucky.

3) Art Collector

• Morning Line Odds: 5/2
• Trainer: Tom Drury (Debut)
• Jockey: Brian Hernandez, Jr. (0-2)

He’d have been second choice in Louisville before a brief illness knocked him out of the Derby. He missed just three days of training according to his connections and comes into this fresh and with a solid series of morning drills. He has plenty of speed and could be on the lead if that is the chosen path. He’s won from off the pace as well, namely in the Blue Grass, giving him some versatility that could come in handy should the Derby winner or the filly have their heart set on controlling the pace. A must use in all exotic and multi-race wagers.

4) Swiss Skydiver

• Morning Line Odds: 6/1
• Trainer: Ken McPeek (0-5)
• Jockey: Robby Albarado (1-9)

Connections based their decision on the status of Tiz the Law and stuck to their word by entering when he defected. She tried the boys and beat them all save Art Collector in the Blue Grass then romped from off the pace in the Alabama before a second-place finish in the Kentucky Oaks. She hasn’t had a break since debuting in mid-November of last year. This will be her eleventh start at her ninth different track with her seventh different rider, all in less than 11 months. At some point you would think the well would run dry but it hasn’t yet. I think that may change. A reluctant toss.

5) Thousand Words

• Morning Line Odds: 6/1
• Trainer: Bob Baffert (7-20)
• Jockey: Florent Geroux (0-4)

Perhaps nothing was more “2020” than the 30 minutes surrounding the Kentucky Derby. He flips and gets scratched in the paddock, breaking assistant trainer Jimmy Barnes’ hand in the process, before stablemate Authentic wins Derby and wheels in winners’ circle, knocking Baffert to the ground. What a scene!!! It’s rare to see a comeback on the Triple Crown Trail but he kinda fits the bill as he was highly thought of early on before tailing off then winning the Shared Belief. I must think he’ll be forwardly placed, perhaps hounding some of the other speed in here. I’m not using him.

6) Jesus’ Team

• Morning Line Odds: 30/1
• Trainer: Jose D’Angelo (Debut)
• Jockey: Jevian Toledo (0-1)

He was entered for a tag and went unclaimed in five of his first seven starts then hit the board in his last three against stakes company, including a third-place finish in the Jim Dandy last out when blinkers were added. Appears to have some distance limitations to me. Pass.

7) Ny Traffic

• Morning Line Odds: 15/1
• Trainer: Saffie Joseph, Jr. (Debut)
• Jockey: Horacio Karamanos (Debut)

Just missed nailing Authentic on the wire of the Haskell before fading in latter stages of Derby where he had a fairly good trip. Another who may be a bit better at shorter distances. Not for me.

8) Max Player

• Morning Line Odds: 15/1
• Trainer: Steve Asmussen (2-10)
• Jockey: Paco Lopez (Debut)

He worked out decent trip from his rail draw in Kentucky and grinded away, as he usually does, through the stretch to finish fifth. I feel like he’s going to have a breakthrough performance one of these days and he should get a solid pace to run at in here. I don’t know if he’s good enough, yet, but I’ll mess around with him at that price a bit and find out. Will use in exotics and maybe on a backup multi-race ticket.

Forbes Preakness Picks 2019

9) Authentic

• Morning Line Odds: 9/5
• Trainer: Bob Baffert (7-20
• Jockey: John Velazquez (0-9)

Overcame a less than stellar start in Kentucky under a chilly Johnny V to get to the lead and take them all the way in the Derby. Loved the way he dug in when Tiz the Law came to him, how he has never regressed figure-wise and how he’s trained coming into this. His biggest problem is I think he’ll get tested on the front end in here. In fact, I don’t think he’s getting the lead. And maybe it won’t matter and he can win from just off the pace but I don’t want to take 8-5 on him to find out. I’ll use him on all my exotic tickets and multi-race wagers but can’t take him to win at that price.

10) Pneumatic

• Morning Line Odds: 20/1
• Trainer: Steve Asmussen (2-10)
• Jockey: Joe Bravo (0-4)

He didn’t beat much last out in the Pegasus but I liked the way he did it and he’s now won three of his four starts when he pulls his trip. Lone defeat when coming from off the pace was in the Belmont and I still think he ran well to be fourth. Another live one at a price, I’ll use him in exotics and on a backup multi-race ticket.

11) Liveyourbeastlife

• Morning Line Odds: 30/1
• Trainer: Jorge Abreu (Debut)
• Jockey: Trevor McCarthy (0-1)

Became a fan of his three starts back when he almost upset an allowance at Belmont on the front end at almost 20-1 then cashed when he beat older allowance foes in his two-turn debut at Saratoga. He may have been best after a strange trip in the Jim Dandy when he finished second by less than a length. His pedigree says he’ll run all day, he gets the leading rider in the region and has an up and coming trainer coming off a sensational Saratoga meet. Gonna take a little swing and give a strong look on Saturday!

If Things Go Well...

Forbes Preakness Picks

Exacta, Trifecta, Superfecta Picks:

Forbes Preakness Picks 2020

• Exacta: 11-9
• Trifecta: 11-9-8
• Superfecta: 11-9-8-3

Projected Order of Finish

If All Hell Breaks Loose...

Exacta, Trifecta, Superfecta Picks:

• Exacta: 8-10
• Trifecta: 8-10-11
• Superfecta: 8-10-11-4

Projected Order of Finish

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